Covering seven nations, Bangladesh,?Bhutan,?India,?Maldives,?Nepal,?Pakistan?and?Sri Lanka, South Asia is a region sensitive to disasters. The region has exhausted its land reserves, and is farming soils that are unsuitable for cultivation. Some 35% of productive land is affected by land degradation. South Asia has a population that is vulnerable to risks in terms of sudden fluctuations in markets and natural shocks arising from weather. This region is also marked by high disparities in income, health and education.
South Asia?s geography makes it particularly susceptible to natural disasters. According to the recently published 2011?World Risk Report, countries like Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan exhibit a high level of vulnerability as demonstrated by their lack of coping capacities and adaptive capacities. In evaluating 173 countries for purposes of creating this year?s World Risk Index, the report gave the following countries its global risk index ranking: Bangladesh (6th most risk-prone country of the world), Pakistan (66), India (71) and Nepal (99). There is a high level of variation within South Asia itself, but these rankings should not be misinterpreted to undermine the risk faced by these countries?particularly the poor?in the face of natural disaster.
Since 2004-5, the region became a neighborhood of disasters. Besides recurring flood and drought, it also had to cope with the December 2004?tsunami. There was the October 2005 earthquake in the?Himalayan range?that killed of 75,000. Pakistan was ravaged by an earthquake in 2008, and floods in 2010. And recently Uttarakhand of India and parts of Nepal have experienced devastating floods due to cloudbursts.
A natural disaster is a consequence when a natural hazard affects humans and/or the built environment. Human?vulnerability and lack of appropriate?emergency management lead to financial, environmental, or human impact. The resulting loss depends on the capacity of the population to support or resist the disaster: their resilience. This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: “disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability”. Various phenomena like earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, floods and cyclones are all natural hazards that kill thousands of people and destroy billions of dollars of habitat and property each year.
The rapid growth of the South Asian population and its increased concentration in few places often in hazardous environments has escalated both the frequency and severity of natural disasters. With the tropical climate and unstable land forms, coupled with deforestation, unplanned growth proliferation, non-engineered constructions which make the disaster-prone areas more vulnerable, tardy communication, poor or no budgetary allocation for disaster prevention, developing countries suffer more or less chronically by natural disasters.
Within developing countries, the poor often bear the brunt of disasters as they are located in areas that are more vulnerable to floods, hurricanes and earthquakes; disasters often disrupt food production, resulting in loss of livelihoods and higher food prices; and, finally, not only do the poor lose assets but they also lack access to risk- sharing mechanisms such as insurance.
Recent Natural Disasters in India:
In June 2013, the North?Indian?states of?Uttarakhand?and?Himachal Pradesh, some regions of Western Nepal and their adjoining areas experienced heavy rainfall that triggered devastating floods and landslides. Parts of?Haryana,?Delhi?and?Uttar Pradesh, and some parts of Western Tibet also experienced heavy rainfall. By early July, more than 1,000 people have died with more than 6000 missing. Damage to bridges and roads left over 70,000 pilgrims and tourists trapped in various places,many of whom were rescued.As of 30?June?2013, about 300 – 400 people are said to be still stranded.?The Indian Air Force, the Army and paramilitary troops have evacuated more than 110,000 people from the flood hit area.?Although Uttarakhand Assembly Speaker, based on various ground reports said that the death toll could cross 10,000,?the official death toll in Uttarakhand (by 29 June 2013) was 842, and around 6000 missing.
Unprecedented destruction by the rainfall witnessed in Uttarakhand state was attributed, by environmentalists, to unscientific developmental activities undertaken in recent decades and this contributed to high level of loss of property and lives. Roads constructed in haphazard style, new resorts and hotels built on fragile river banks and more than 70 back to back hydro electric projects coming up across the river system of the state lead to a “disaster waiting to happen” as termed by certain environmentalists.?As per environmental experts, the tunnels built and blasts undertaken for 70 hydro electric projects contributed to ecological imbalance in the state, with flow of river water restricted and the unscientific real estate activity contributed to higher number of landslides and more flood
Ecologists point out that the huge expansion of hydro-power projects and construction of roads to cope with the lakhs of tourists in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh has compounded the scale of the disaster.
Sunita Narain, director general of Centre for Science and Environment said, ?This is very much a man-made disaster. There are of course links between climate change and extreme weather events as has happened with the torrential rain in Uttarakhand. But this has been exacerbated by the reckless construction of buildings, dams and roads in a fragile environment. Many of the settlements have been built right next to the rivers in blatant violation of environmental laws. There is a strong need to evolve a holistic Himalayan policy which will deal with all these issues.”
Prof. Maharaj Pandit of the department of environmental sciences at Delhi University has demanded a study be conducted to assess the carrying capacity of the Himalayas, which are a young mountain range. The expansion of roads has proved a major destabilising factor combined as it is with plans to construct over 200 dams in this sensitive eco-zone. Data with the Uttarakhand state transport department bears this out.
The state has seen a 1000 per cent increase in vehicular traffic in the last eight years, with ecologists having forewarned about the correlation between tourism increase and the higher increase of landslides. Ganga crusader G.D.?Aggarwal said, ?Politicians and local mafia have all colluded to destroy the ecology of the mountains. The result is that one of the most fragile regions suffering poor soil stability is facing this calamity,? he said.
Uttarakhand: The Development Debate:
In the recent article titled ?Energy is engine for development?, Y. Harish Chandra Prasad,?Chairman, Malaxmi Group, makes a strong case for energy.? ?I am of the view that people pointing fingers at the power projects are only looking at one side of the coin. In the first place, cloudbursts and the resultant flooding in the Himalayan range is a feature that keeps happening to us, like cyclones. Secondly, global warming is having an impact everywhere and the Himalayan ranges are no exception.?It is a fact that meddling with nature has been compounding the loss but a scientific study should be conducted before the so-called environmental activists deliver their judgement that power projects did aggravate the calamity.
One should understand that the prime growth engine for development is energy. India, despite being branded as a fast-growing economy, still lags behind in the energy sector. As per estimates, 40 per cent of India still has no access to electricity and in the remaining 60 per cent area, quality, uninterrupted power supply is not available. The country requires at least one lakh MW of electricity to meet its suppressed?demand. Hydel power is the cheapest mode of energy which is less than half the cost of gas and thermal energies. India ranks at the top globally in terms of exploitable hydro potential. More projects are envisaged in the Himalayan ranges not only because of the presence of ice-fed and rain-fed rivers, but due to the natural incline that provides the required kinetic energy for generation at no or very low cost. According to a MoU signed between the Centre and the Uttarakhand government at the time of the formation of the state, the unexploited potential for hydel energy is 20,000 MW which is nearly one-fifth of the nation’s current requirement.?
Giving another perspective, in an article titled, ?Damage severe due to power projects?, Vimal Bhai,?Social activist and founder of Matu Janasanghatan, notes, ?All that rainfall the region received, a few days ago during Uttarakhand floods, was just 14-18 cms. The gushing waters, left to their natural course, would have joined their ultimate destination, the sea, but thanks to the rough manhandling of the river course, unprecedented damage and destruction, destroyed many parts of Uttarakhand. The region suffered one of the worst floods since the 1970s, but this time the damage is severe due to mega power projects, artificial tunnels, blasting of hills, dumping of lakhs of cubic meters of debris, on the river banks…among other damaging factors.
?There is a strong nexus among the contractors, power companies, politicians and bureaucrats. The drama unfolds from the conduct of the public hearing, amidst police forces, which will not allow your voice to be heard.? The licenses are issued based on cooked up Environmental Impact Assessments. Permissions are granted and people are driven away from their own homes and works are grounded. There are about 100 mega power projects in different stages in the state.?
M. Shashidhar Reddy is the vice-chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which is in the eye of the storm. He analyses the Uttarakhand disaster from another perspective. He notes, ?The permission to construct houses/hotels is given by local bodies, at the urban and the panchayat levels. The ministry of environment and forests had brought a model bill on flood plain zones way back in 1975. But the only two states to ratify it are Rajasthan and Manipur, states that are least likely to be flooded. Also, implementing such a bill is not easy. There is pressure from lobbies; people need to be sensitised. The waterways in the country are being interfered with everywhere. We need to take cognisance of the fact that extreme weather events are going to be on the rise. This is a global pattern, but India is extremely vulnerable to extreme weather events. Even a country like Germany has been facing floods. And let me also quote from Pitt?s Review about lessons learnt from floods in the UK. The review highlighted the fact that due to shortage of land, a quarter of the houses constructed in the UK were built on flood plains. However, given the fury and torrent of our mountain rivers, local authorities have to ensure this does not happen in the future. I must also emphasise that adaptation and mitigation must be given much more importance as means to handle ext?reme weather events.?
What we have learnt from this series of events?
Two main lessons can be drawn from the Mahakali (Nepal, June 2013, at least 100 dead and more than 12,000 displaced) and Uttarakhand flood disasters: The severity of the disaster could have been mitigated with a better end-to-end information system and proper infrastructure planning would have reduced the damage.
Accordingly, we need to:
Put in place institutional mechanisms that that can use technological advances in forecasting. Although some warnings were disseminated by the India Meteorological Organization about the possibility of high to intense rainfall, this information was not transmitted to the?people at risk. There is a need to strengthen disaster management and preparedness mechanisms, which requires awareness and sensitization at various levels to ensure that early warning information is conveyed to end users well in advance. Advances in technology have made it possible to provide three to four hours warning of such events ? which is enough to save lives. We need to develop the institutional mechanisms to fully use such technological advances.
Set up more hydrometeorological stations on transboundary rivers. There is no river-level hydrological monitoring station on the Mahakali river for flood forecasting and early warning. It is recommended that a river monitoring station for early warning be set up jointly by Nepal and India to provide people with some lead-time and improve flood forecasting and management in the basin.
Carefully plan infrastructure in the mountains. The Hindu?newspaper put it succinctly when it said that damage could have been contained through proper policies, especially regarding infrastructure development. The development of infrastructure in mountain areas, whether roads or buildings, is challenging. Many mountain roads are contributing a huge sediment load to our rivers and inviting landslides. Many of the settlements are located along flood plains and have developed over the years, encroaching the river banks and increasing the vulnerability to floods. These settlements include residential homes, offices, resorts and restaurants to name a few. There has been limited or no efforts to move these settlements to higher grounds. In the recent floods, large stretches of road and settlements were washed away stranding thousands of people and raising questions about their design, construction, and monitoring. Infrastructure development in the mountains has to be undertaken with caution and proper planning, and must apply different standards to that in the plains.
There is also a need to investigate whether or not there have been significant land use changes in the basin resulting in increased runoff.
The sad events in Uttarakhand lead one to believe that such a meeting is needed urgently to evolve a national consensus on how to safeguard the Himalayas before it is too late. Some of the guidelines that were under consideration and are still very relevant were:
?Prohibition on unplanned growth of new urban settlements, followed by the consolidation of existing settlements, which are governed by a municipal master plan. These settlements would be provided with all basic urban facilities such as water supply, waste disposal and power before further urban growth is permitted.
Prohibition on construction activity in areas falling in hazard prone zones or across alignments of natural springs, water sources and watersheds near urban settlements.
?Banning the use of plastic bags in all hill towns and villages.
?Comprehensive inventory of key pilgrimage sites in each state, including analyses of the ecological load-carrying capacity of each site, based on its location and fragility. An ecological and spiritual buffer-zone could be created around these sites, with no vehicular traffic permitted within a 10 km radius.
?Strict control and compulsory disposal of debris from road construction and other project sites, avoiding the disruption of natural drainage in the area.
?Promotion of homestead tourism in the Himalayan zone rather than three to five star tourist hotels and lodges. The local inhabitants become the best sentinels of protecting the habitat if it is a source of their livelihood.
These measures will have to be accompanied by a major campaign to build environmental awareness. An annual national festival of the Himalayas could be organised to celebrate local cultures, which demonstrate ways of sustainable living for resilient communities, in harmony with the pristine nature of the Himalayas. This would also expose the rest of the country to the importance of the Himalayas in India?s national life.
Natural Disasters and Nepal:
Because of hazards and calamities such as landslides, avalanche, floods, flash floods, glacial lake outbursts etc., thousands of people are affected every year in Nepal. More than 1,000 people die annually in Nepal because of natural hazards, with almost 300 deaths due to floods and landslides alone35. Heavy flooding in the past years has affected hundreds of families in eastern Nepal. Saptari is one of the most floodprone districts in the south eastern Terai region where heavy rains in 2007 affected over 50,000 households, displaced nearly 8,300 and destroyed over 3,500 houses. The 2007 South Asian floods killed eighty-four people in Nepal while 9,700 families were displaced. 28 of the country’s 75 districts were affected.
In 2008, at least 10 people, including six in one family, have been reported killed by a mudslide in far western Jajarkot district37. Torrential rains in September 2008 caused heavy flooding in mid-west and far-west regions of Nepal resulting in the displacement of 180,000 people38. Crop failure due to severe drought conditions in nine hill districts of far western and mid-western Nepal resulted in a precarious food situation which affected more than 300,000 people.
A survey done by ICIMOD and UNEP highlights that 26 lakes in Nepal are categorized as dangerous due to the threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs)39. As highlighted by IPCC (2001), glacial melt is expected to increase under changed climate 21 Disasters in South Asia ? A Regional Perspective conditions, which would lead to increased summer flows in some river systems for a few decades, followed by a reduction in flow as the glaciers disappear. According to some studies, almost 20 per cent of the present glaciated area above 5000 m altitude is likely to be snow and glacier free with an increase of air temperature by 1?C. Similarly, a 3-4?C temperature rise would result in the loss of 58 to 70 per cent of snow and glaciated areas with threat of GLOFs.
Nepal is situated in the seismically active Himalayan mountain belt dominated by the northward movement of the Indian tectonic plate towards and below the Eurasian tectonic plate. The role of earthquakes is essentially to catch up with the rate of convergence of these plates. Every year, more than a thousand earthquakes of various magnitudes ranging from 2 to 5 on the Richter scale occur in the country. Nepal has a long record of destructive earthquakes that extends back to 1255 AD. According to historical evidence, Nepal has experienced nine major earthquakes over the last 700 years. Recurring earthquakes during the 20th century claimed more than 23,000 lives.
How can South Asian countries fortify themselves in the face of inevitable natural disasters? Where Bangladesh seems to be taking steps to improve its resilience, countries like Nepal and Pakistan are struggling for solutions. Nepal may have ranked towards the middle of the World Risk Index at 99th?out of the 173, but the country with a population of around 30 million people faces similar natural threats as Bangladesh. According to data compiled by the Disaster Preparedness Network Nepal (DPNN),?22,278?people in Nepal have lost their lives due to natural disasters since 1982. DPNN data also illustrates the natural disasters behind these fatalities ? they are attributed to avalanches, earthquakes, floods and landslides, fire, pandemics, stampedes, and windstorm, hailstones and lightning. Although the demographics behind this figure has not been published, it would be a fair assumption based on the experience of other South Asian countries that those people with less stable homes ? the urban poor ? make up a significant fraction of the fatalities. DPNN Chairman Dr. Meen Bahadur Poudel notes that these fatalities are due to increase in the future.
On September 18, 2011, a 6.9-magnitude earthquake in Nepal?s Kathmandu Valley displaced 12,301 people and killed six people. There are growing fears that the country?s capital, Kathmandu, home to two million inhabitants, is due to experience a devastating earthquake ? like the 8.0-magnitude quake that occurred 77 years ago and killed more than 225,000 people ? and is not prepared. A?Khajeel Times?article?states: ?The Kathmandu Valley has experienced rapid, uncontrolled urbanization in the past few years and the lack of infrastructure and deep-rooted poverty leave it desperately underprepared for an earthquake.? British geologist Dave Petley elaborates on one of the key problems in Kathmandu: ?The building stock is not seismically strengthened, suggesting that in a big earthquake there will be large numbers of building collapses.? Geology experts say that Kathmandu is overdue for an earthquake that would kill tens of thousands of people and leave survivors isolated from international aid.
There are basic steps that can be taken in Kathmandu ? and wider Nepal ? to boost its resilience, such as enforcing building codes and executing emergency drills for the public. The National Society for Earthquake Technology, established in Nepal in 1988, has launched a program to make school buildings more earthquake-resistant. As a nationwide initiative, Nepal?s Home Ministry has identified 83 areas in the Kathmandu Valley where infrastructure and food storage facilities will be built in the event of emergency. But more must be done to both prepare citizens for natural disasters and to update infrastructure to meet the region?s seismic challenges.
Natural Disasters and Bangladesh:
As per the Global Rish Index, Bangladesh has been?declared?the second most disaster-risk country in Asia?only after the Philippines?and sixth in the world after countries like Vanuatu, Tonga and Guatemala. Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to earthquakes, tsunamis and typhoons due to its exposure to seismic activity. The growing effects of climate change are also projected to exacerbate the country?s exposure. In response, the Government of Bangladesh has taken steps this year to set up a national program for disaster risk reduction. In a June 2011 interview, Mohammad Abdul Qayyum, National Director of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Program,?noted?that state structural measures (i.e., building embankment, sea walls and anti-cyclone shelters), as well as non-structural measures (i.e., increasing individual and community preparedness, introducing community-managed early warning systems) are being put into place to reduce the potential impacts from natural disaster.
But how prepared are Bangladesh?s urban centers? Dhaka is at great?risk?because of ??its inability to absorb the shock of any severe natural disaster.? The Bangladesh capital is an enormous, ?unplanned? city that is ill-equipped to handle its growing population. In an?op-ed?published in?The Financial Express, Shafiqul Alam writes about climate change and vulnerability, ??mitigation and adaptation are options available, though mitigation and adaptation are the opposite sides of a coin.? Adaptation is motivated by self-interest ? meaning that people, communities and states need to pursue their own disaster planning and management strategies. Mitigation, however, is motivated by general improvement: ??installing more efficient energy and modes of transportation, planting trees and the like will benefit not only the individual doing it but also the world at large.? As the government further shapes and implements its national program, it will become more clear what roles adaptation and mitigation will play in disaster risk reduction.
Recent Natural Disasters in Pakistan:
In the year 2010, Pakistan was hit by worst floods in its history rendering 20 million people homeless and bringing one-fifth of the country under water. The floods, that left a trail of miseries that the affected population continues to battle even three years later, was a wakeup call for policy-makers, development experts, civil society and the general public that had not deemed climate change as well as the existing skewed development and resource distribution order as an important concern impacting the future of the country. The 2010 and later 2011 floods (in Sindh) exposed the extremely grim conditions that marked the daily lives of a large section of the population that had compromised access to basic amenities of life such as health, education, and shelter, and fundamental human rights, including decent livelihoods.
The story of Pakistan is a near cautionary tale for the rest of South Asia of what happens when institutions and systems are not in place to alleviate emergencies. Pakistan?s plight since 2010 is well-documented. This year, at least?5.5 million people?have been affected by flooding in the country: in late August, floods killed over 300 people and have damaged 1.2 million houses. Last year?s floods affected 21 million people ? both in rural and urban areas ? and it is?estimated?that 800,000 families are still homeless in the wake of 2010?s floods. Oxfam has accused the Government of Pakistan of not investing in prevention that has cost the economy near US$10bn. The government, though, is cash-strapped and the challenges faced are bigger than what it can handle. The UN has started a food drive to feed 500,000 displaced flood victims, but this effort is not enough; it does not improve Pakistan?s future prospects of grappling with natural disasters. International donors have had ?cold response? to Pakistan?s appeals for help.?The Express Tribune?reports: ?The cold response comes not from donor fatigue, but from questions being raised over the government?s ability to raise a portion of the funds.?
Fast Melting Himalayas:
A major threat comes from the fast melting Himalayas. The Himalayan system shapes the monsoon dynamics in the region. The system is the spinal cord of river networks in the region that impacts the economy, culture, livelihood and life in the region. Flood plains of major rivers e.g. Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, and Meghna draw their sustenance from the Himalayan ecosystem and support life for over 1.5 billion people. The Ganges river basin alone is home to about 600 million people.
The Gangotri glacier feeds Ganges and the glacier is receding since 1780. In recent years the pace of retreat has accelerated. During the period of 1975 to 1999, the glacier has retreated more than 850 meters, with a 76 meters loss from 1996 to 1999 alone. The Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates ranging from 10 to 60 meters per year and many small glaciers (<0.2 sq km) have already disappeared. Vertical shift of glaciers as great as 100m have been recorded during the last fifty years. In this context retreating glaciers of the Himalayas could pose far-reaching challenge to the region. Some of the glaciers in Himalayas are receding more rapidly than the global average.
This is also causing increased threats of glacial lake outburst floods in certain countries especially in Bhutan and Nepal. As glaciers melt, flood risks would increase in the near future.
However in the later years, the region may be deprived of its precious water resources. As glaciers recede, there could be significant declines in flows. By 2050, the annual runoff in the Brahmaputra is projected to decline by 14 per cent and the Indus by 27 per cent 10. The South Asian region is among the water stressed regions of the world and melting Himalayas pose serious risk to sustainability of water resources of the region. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka account for more than 21 per cent of the world population, yet must make do with barely 8.3 per cent of the global water resources 11. This makes China controlled Tibet highly important for the South Asian countries. The water-rich southern Tibetan belt, the Himalayan rim, serves as the headwaters of the two major river systems – the Indus and the Brahmaputra – as well as several other important rivers of the region.
Within South Asia, countries are confronted by varied challenges, but the common denominators are inadequate infrastructure and, for whatever reasons, government inaction. Urbanization will continue to push cities to their limits, and the environmental risks of these cities will grow. To limit risk exposure, these countries will need to find solutions that will address both preparedness and emergency response when needed. Countries like Bolivia ? one of the poorest in Latin America ? also face significant threats from natural disasters, but lack the institutional capacities to handle events like its devastating rains in 2001, which left close to 14,000 families homeless. The Government of Bolivia has focused its national disaster program on preparedness and risk management ? two aspects which it does have control over. South Asian countries need to do the same.
The State Role & the Samaritan?s Dilemma in Disaster Tackling:
While developing countries bear the brunt of disasters, ironically these are also the countries which have made fewer efforts to adapt their physical environments to mitigate the impact of such disasters and to insure themselves against disaster risks, partly because of the disincentive known as the ?Samaritan?s dilemma? (i.e. nations may under-invest in protective measures since they expect foreign donors to help when such disasters strike).
The Samaritan?s dilemma, on the other hand, may arise from households and firms under-investing in insurance and undertaking adaptive measures on the presumption that governments would come to their rescue; governments may also under-invest in the hope that foreign donors would bail them out; and rich countries may find it difficult to scale down their ex post assistance in the absence of significant ex ante protective measures by governments in developing countries.
New financial instruments (e.g. catastrophic bonds, swaps, and weather derivatives) have been devised to deal with disaster risk but with little impact.
Tackling Natural Disasters: Risk Mitigation:
Risk mitigation through adaptation of physical environment includes land use planning (e.g. avoiding construction on seismic fault lines, vulnerable coastal regions, and ensuring that buildings are resistant to hurricanes and earthquakes); prevention of soil erosion; building of dams for flood control, and seawalls to break storm surges. Governments could also promote farming practices so that farmers can cope better with climatic variations-drought resistant crops- and adapt to longer-term changes.
Adverse selection is a problem in disaster insurance but less than in other insurance markets, as many disasters can be predicted more accurately, as also the value of property at stake. In developing countries, however, specific problems arise from the thinness of insurance markets and ill-defined property rights.
Two other problems are arguably more serious. One is the difficulty of risk spreading and the second is linked to the Samaritan?s dilemma. While risk-spreading in developing countries in general should not be difficult ? since the losses they face are a small fraction of global resources ? it often is because of the segmented and shallow insurance markets.
Donor Concerns & Issues in Disaster Mitigation:
Some observations regarding donor concerns and a more coordinated disaster prevention and mitigation strategy are made below.
? A major strategic concern is mainstreaming of disaster prevention and mitigation among multilateral development agencies and governments. This rests on the presumption that the response to disasters has been reactive and tactical, and not strategic in the sense that the emergencies caused by natural hazards (e.g. floods, earthquakes) are not periodic but on-going in the context of highly vulnerable countries. Pacific-rim states, for example, will continue to be hit by earthquakes and floods, while low-lying coastal areas in the Bay of Bengal will continue to get flooded. Given climate change projections, vulnerability to some of these hazards may rise.
? Recovery from a disaster and poverty reduction go hand in hand. Choices made during the initial phase could influence the outcomes in terms of poverty favourably or unfavourably over time. If interventions do not go beyond short-term relief and shy away from rebuilding of livelihoods and reconstruction from a longer-term perspective, communities/regions highly vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g. low lying coastal areas are highly vulnerable to floods) are likely to fare worse with recurrent catastrophes.
? Why should multilaterals/ developing countries be concerned? A striking piece of evidence is that the damage from the Kashmir earthquake of December, 2005, exceeded total development assistance in the preceding three years. A related question is why the longer-term implications of building resilience against such disasters do not get the priority they deserve. Typically, disaster responses are designed to make a chaotic situation manageable. In such a process, people and institutions that might help rebuild affected communities are left out. What makes matters worse is that little attention is paid to how the next disaster could be averted. Neither donor funding is geared to that goal nor are the developing countries, as soon after the emergency is over other development priorities take over.
? Need for building of ownership through borrower financing and involvement of local communities, preservation of social networks in rehabilitation programmes, support for complementary activities (e.g. rehabilitation centres must ensure provision of safe water and sanitation), and maintenance of infrastructure.
? Evidence has accumulated pointing to coordination failure turning natural catastrophes into disasters. Much of the destruction and deaths in the wake of the 2004 tsunami could have been averted. In fact, there was a chain of coordination failures. Another case in point is the Orissa cyclone of 1999. But a cyclone three years later (in 2002) resulted in far fewer deaths as both official agencies and affected communities responded more quickly and in a coordinated manner. The mortalities in the wake of the Kashmir earthquake in 2005 were staggering for a variety of reasons, including slow and uncoordinated response, inaccessible terrain, tightfisted-ness of donors, mistrust between neighbours and failure to enforce building codes.
SAARC Framework on Disaster Management:
It is also important to point out that a regional response to natural disasters, whether in the shape of the SAARC Framework on Disaster Management or other bilateral and trilateral institutional arrangements that states may think of, is extremely important.
By 2050, the South Asia?s population is likely to exceed from the current level of 1.5 billion to 2.2 billion. Having more than 600 million South Asians subsisting on less than US$1.25 a day, a single climate change incident can result into a disaster that may push millions into poverty and miseries.
According to International Disaster Database EM-DAT, in the 1990s, climate-related disasters affected over 2 billion people in developing nations, representing about 40 per cent of the total population in the affected countries 7. South Asia with a large population base is susceptible to greater disasters in the wake of climate change. More than 750 million people in the region have been affected by at least one natural disaster in the last two decades.
In May 2011, the Secretary General of SAARC presented a draft SAARC Agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters to the Inter-governmental meeting in Colombo, Sri Lanka. He pointed out quoting global statistics, that over the past forty years, South Asia faced as many as 1,333 disasters that killed 980,000 people, affected 2.4 billion lives and damaged assets worth US$105 billion. This loss is by far the highest among the recorded disasters in various geographical regions.
The SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC) was set up in October 2006 at the premises of National Institute of Disaster Management in New Delhi. The Centre has the mandate to serve eight Member Countries of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka ? by 31 Disasters in South Asia ? A Regional Perspective providing policy advice and facilitating capacity building services including strategic learning, research, training, system development and exchange of information for effective disaster? risk reduction and management in South Asia.
The Centre is a sleek body of professionals working on various dimensions of disaster risk reduction and management in the region. SDMC is networking through the National Focal Points of the Member Countries with the various Ministries, Departments and Scientific, Technical, Research and Academic institutions within and outside the Government working on different aspects of disaster risk reduction and management. The Centre conducts studies and research, organizes workshops and training programmes, publishes its reports, and documents and provides various policy advisory services to the Member Countries.
In a recent development, Seventeenth Summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was held in Addu city of Maldives on 10-11 November 2011. In Addu declaration, member countries expressed their consciousness of the environmental degradation and particular vulnerabilities of the region to the threat of climate change. The declaration also welcomed the signing of the SAARC Agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters.
Prior to this in May 2011 an inter-governmental meeting on draft SAARC Agreement on Rapid Response to Natural Disasters held in Colombo, Sri Lanka reached a broad consensus on the Agreement. This agreement was adopted in Seventeenth SAARC Summit held in Maldives in November 2011. The draft agreement based on the principle of respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and national unity of all member states aims to put in place an effective mechanism for rapid response to disasters to achieve substantial reduction in loss of lives and loss of social, economic and environmental assets in times of a disaster.
In a more promising development, the Abu Dhabi Dialogue Group comprising seven states sharing the rivers rising in the Greater Himalayas is expected to meet this year to adopt a joint initiative to minimize the impact of melting of glaciers. The group comprising Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal was set up in 2006 in Abu Dhabi. Later on, the United Kingdom, Australia and Norway joined it to support its activities. It would strive to achieve within ten years a cooperative and knowledge based partnership for managing fairly and developing the Himalayan River Systems to bring prosperity, peace and social harmony and environmental sustainability from the source to the sea.
The World Bank has started facilitating the dialogue to focus on the changing conditions in the headwaters and the pressures in the floodplains and deltas. The group has decided to adopt a non-representative and non-formal participation so as not to focus on particular rivers or disputes, no attribution and no requirement for a consensus outcome and instead focus on sharing global experience on international waters and benefit sharing for achieving constructive convergence on major issues.
Assisted by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the group has convened more than 50 leading knowledge institutions across the region to be part of the process.
Disasters in South Asia ? A Regional Perspective
On the advice of the World Bank, the participating countries have agreed to have a regional hydro-meteorological system to overcome shortage of reliable data and its sharing mechanism. The World Bank will provide financial support in this regard. The most significant aspect of this initiative is participation of China. Without including China, South Asia?s water and hydro-meteorological disaster issues will always remain unresolved.
Apart from security and economy, climate change and disasters are just one more reason for effective regional cooperation for overall wellbeing of more than a billion inhabitants of the region. Considering the scale of poverty and vulnerability to natural disasters, all countries in the region have no option but to enhance regional cooperation to safeguard their own populations and national interests. Information sharing, capacity building and prudent policies on shared water bodies could be the key areas of regional cooperation for SAARC countries.
While almost every country has developed some policy framework and strategies to mitigate and manage disasters in their won remits, trans-boundary cooperation with neighboring countries would be inevitable in the coming years. A long term vision and strategies in the wake of pernicious climate change effects is of critical importance among the SAARC members.
Shared water bodies and sources of water would be the climatic hotspots in coming years and a basin-wide approach to manage hydro-disasters would be much desirable.
Another important dimension in regional cooperation is bringing China on board. The challenges faced by South Asian countries pertaining to climate change and disasters have their roots in China as major rivers of the region originate from Chinese controlled Tibet plateau. It is therefore of utmost importance that SAARC should engage meaningfully with China for regional cooperation on climate change and disasters. Likewise transboundary cooperation among SAARC countries is attaining greater importance in the wake of rising frequency of disasters in the region.
