Risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth and Moon Low: Scientists
Low Risks of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impacting Earth and Moon: A Scientific Perspective
The risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth and Moon in December 2032 is relatively low, according to scientists. This large ‘city-killer’ asteroid was discovered in December 2024, and its chances of impacting Earth in 2032 have been enhanced.
The Risk of Impact: Debunking the Myths
One of the primary concerns is that the asteroid’s mass is relatively low compared to Earth. As a result, the impact on Earth would be negligible. According to Professor Varun Bhalerao from IIT Bombay, "The mass of that asteroid is not very high as compared to Earth. So, as far as Earth as a whole is concerned, the impact of the asteroid hitting Earth would be negligible." However, if the asteroid were to blow up in the atmosphere, it could create a significant explosion, posing a threat to many aspects of life.
The Current Risk Assessment: A 0.28% Chance of Impact
Initial estimates suggested a 3.1% chance of the asteroid striking Earth in 2032. However, recent observations have significantly reduced this risk to just 0.28%. NASA has confirmed this, stating: "New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues."
The Possibility of Impact: A Remote Chance
Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, emphasizes that the possibility of the 2024 YR4 asteroid impacting Earth in 2032 is extremely remote. He notes: "The probability of impact is only 0.3%… we’re going to keep updating this impact probability as we collect additional tracking data."
The Uncertainty in Orbital Trajectory
Scientists measure the asteroid’s orbit to understand its potential impact on Earth. As Astrophysicist Professor Bhalerao explains, "Earth is a heavy body, so it keeps moving, but for asteroids, based on what other objects they pass by, it will make very small deflections in their path. While uncertainty is always there, as you get closer and closer to the mark, the uncertainty decreases, because now you can update based on your data."
The Risk of Impacting the Moon: Still a Possibility
Despite reports of the Moon being a possible target, Professor Bhalerao believes: "The probability of hitting the Moon is actually a bit smaller, because the Moon is physically smaller, and the asteroid is not massive enough to do something like that." According to NASA, the chance of impact is approximately 1%.
The Threat of Near-Earth Objects: A Long-term Concern
Astronaut and Astrophysicist Professor Bhalerao highlights: "Every time you see a meteor shower, it is an asteroid hitting the Earth, except they burn up in the atmosphere. They look beautiful. Our atmosphere is kind of working like a shield to protect us from these things, but no matter how good your shield is, if something is bigger, it can penetrate the shield. And as you go to larger and larger sizes, something the size of a kilometer or so probably is enough to wipe out all life on Earth."
Conclusion: A Low Risk, but a Serious Concern
While the risk of Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth and Moon in December 2032 is low, it is essential to continue monitoring its trajectory. As Professor Bhalerao emphasizes, the need to keep monitoring is crucial to mitigate the threat posed by such near-Earth objects. With its ability to potentially wipe out all life on Earth, the asteroid serves as a stark reminder of the importance of asteroid detection and monitoring.
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