By Pallavi Rachel George
?The world is indeed full of peril, and in it there are many dark places; but still there is much that is fair, and though in all lands love is now mingled with grief, it grows perhaps the greater.?
As I watch the Ukraine story unfold on the television, these words come to my mind. Tolkien was right when he wrote this in the Two Towers. Images of Ukrainians dying in hundreds, buildings ravaged by fire and protestors holding mirrors to the police to make them ?reflect? their actions, all flash across the screen. Ukraine is burning.
?Euromaidan? refers to the ongoing protests and demonstrations in Ukraine, with protestors demanding agreements with the European Union. President Viktor Yanukovych instead of signing the deal with the Union accepted a ?bailout? of 15 billion dollars from Russia. The Kremlin has always had a strong influence on Ukraine and the President is quite friendly with Vladimir Putin.
The Association Agreement between EU and Ukraine was to be a step towards further political, economic and cultural links between the two. However the criteria for the passing of this deal was that Ukraine reversed some of its autocratic rules and systems. Initially Ukraine was in the process of amendment to sign the agreement, however, certain moves by Russia caused it to suspend the deal.
Foxnews reported on 21st September 2013: Speaking at a conference in the Black Sea city of Yalta on Saturday, Putin?s economic adviser Sergei Glazyev dismissed the benefits of a planned free-trade deal between the EU and Ukraine as “mythology.” He warned that tariffs and trade checks that Russia would impose after the deal could cost Ukraine billions of dollars and result in a default. “One has to be ready to pay for that,” Glazyev said.
Mr.Yanukovych and the Russian propaganda branded the protestors as terrorists. The protests soon became a stand off against the ?corrupt elite and bureaucracy?, whose strings were controlled by the Kremlin.
The dilemma in Ukraine is rooted in its identity crisis. Russian conquests lead to the eastern half of Ukraine being more Russian in its outlook than Ukrainian. Hence for many, Russian is their mother tongue and they identify more with the Rus. However the western half speaks Ukrainian mainly, and remembering the brutality of the Russian rule, prefers to identify with Europe than with Russia.
In every election there is a Pro Russian candidate and a Pro European Candidate. Yanukovych is Pro Russian and hence his Russian leanings. Thus even though the EU agreement had only a 43% support via opinion polls (remaining 30% for Russian deal and the rest for Non Alignment), his decision to suspend the EU deal met with a lot of public protest, mainly from the western half, those who hadn?t voted him into the seat in the first place.
Keeping this juxtapose in mind, we need to analyze what?s happening in Ukraine. As I write this, the President of Ukraine has fled the capital and has been declared a fugitive by the Parliament. The popular opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko was released from imprisonment. More worryingly, Russian troops have taken over a strategic region in Ukraine, Crimea, after approval by the Russian Parliament.
Irrespective of how and which type of government is formed, the nation is faced with the daunting task of tackling near bankruptcy, knee deep corruption webs and an altogether broken government system.
?Nobody wants to end up owning all the problems that Ukraine faces,? said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Ukraine is heavily debt burdened, a result of continuous borrowing from private creditors and high interest rates. To add to the burden, the Ukrainian economy registered no growth at all in the year 2012-13, a result of both the Eurozone crisis as well as the slowing of the Russian economy. Thus even if a Pro European government is created, chances are that Russia becomes important for restoring Ukraine. The 15 billion deal with Russia was aimed at easing Ukraine?s debts.
This brings us to the Russian angle of the whole deal. Because of the strong influence Moscow has on Kiev, Russia has been able to give out threats to Ukraine, be it economic, such as trade barriers, or the outright invasion of Crimea under claims of protecting the ethnic Russians. U.S. President Barack Obama has warned Putin, saying, ?there will be costs? if the military breach continues, bringing Cold War memories to both the nations.
What is interesting is how easily Crimea fell to Russia. Pro Russian demonstrations were taking place before the Rus troops entered, with many raising Russian flags and clashing with the supporters of the new government in Kiev. Locals say they feel safe now that the troops are patrolling the area. Hence, while the West continues to give warnings to Russia, one cannot ignore the fact that majority of the East Ukrainians would rather join Russia than stay with Ukraine.
The world continues to follow the Ukraine story with bated breath. The possibility of new political alignments, the threat of military war, civil wars, and an altogether bleak future for the nation that is located exactly between the Eastern and Western powers, has lead to world leaders having their hands glued to the telephone. A cataclysm is on the line.
Pallavi Rachel George is currently pursuing her bachelors degree in economics (honours) from St.Stephens College, Delhi University. Being born and brought up in a civil service family, she wants to make a difference and be beneficial to her society, a purpose her family upholds. A trained classical dancer, musician and school Vice Head girl, she went to Germany on a student exchange programme. On a lighter note, she likes dogs and hates olives. Bazinga.
Live News Daily is a trusted name in the digital news space, delivering accurate, timely, and in-depth reporting on a wide range of topics.