By Madhulika Gupta
With the political situation heating up in the south, political parties are preparing themselves for a test of strength in the region. Kerala in particular has been in the news for a good chunk of the past few months, due to a series of murders of RSS workers in the state. The state is now gearing up for a bypoll for the Chengannur Assembly seat in the Alappuzha district, which will set tone for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The seat went vacant due to the sudden demise of KK Ramachandran Nair of Communist Party of India (M) or CPM. Since it has been more than two years that the elections took place in Kerala, this bypoll is going to be a litmus test for all three political coalitions in the state.
Currently governed by the left
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is a coalition of CPM, CPI, and Janta Dal among others and currently controls the government in Kerala. This was the first Indian state where a Communist party gained a foothold. Naturally, winning the election has become a matter of prestige for CPM-led LDF.
CPM especially has a strong hold in the Chengannur region. This is a region that houses the state?s trader community, who have been loyal to the Left parties in the past. However, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led by Congress also has a few cards to play in Chengannur. Formerly, the UDF was in the lead in the region.
The NDA led by BJP also has a fair presence in the state. This is important as the party is anxious now to establish a strong foothold in south. The 2016 Kerala Assembly election saw the LDF receive a huge mandate which was a shocker for UDF and a disappointment for NDA. As LDF basked in the glory of a splendid win, CPM used Kerala to prove its mettle to the entire nation.
Bypoll will test the waters for LDF
The UDF is going to fight tooth and nail to get the Chengannur seat back and show the nation that it is on a winning streak. The date for the bypoll has not yet been announced by the Election Commission, but the parties have already started to choose their candidates.
Rival parties in the state consider this bypoll to be a judgement on the LDF-Pinarayi government?s two-years of leadership in the state. In reality, the bypoll is going to be test of support for the LDF and, for ordinary voters, will be a chance to consider whether or not they think the coalition should be given power in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. However the differences between CPI and CPM have made it difficult for the public to support the coalition. The alliance is relying on the jobs created by KAPEX and a boost to the state?s handicraft industry.
CPM threatened by Cong, BJP
However, the CPM faces two threats. Firstly, Congress has bounced back into the game and has won elections back-to-back in Rajasthan and West Bengal. This, coupled with the moral victory Congress scored in the tight Gujarat race, has boosted the morale of its? party workers. Congress is now confident of its position. P C Vishnunath, who has held the fort for UDF in Chengannur, is confident that the UDF will sweep the polls there.
The second challenge to CPM is the BJP. For a very long time, BJP has been trying to establish a hold in the southern states. While the party has struggled to save its alliance with TDP in Andhra Pradesh, it is fielding star campaigners in Karnataka in the upcoming Assembly elections.
Either of these challenges may bring down CPM. Not only will this bypoll be an assessment of the two years of the Pinarayi Government, the winning coalition will establish some important momentum going into 2019.
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