By Advait Moharir
The recent Assembly elections have established two things. One, that the BJP is gaining acceptability in places like never before, and also has huge potential for a pan-India expansion. Second, the Congress is in a decline like never before. Save for the consolation victory in Punjab, which was also largely aided by huge anti-incumbency, the party is losing control over states like dominoes tumbling one after the other. Political pundits have penned premature obituaries for it already. Indeed, is it the end of the road for the grand old party of India?
How the numbers add up
It is abundantly clear that the Congress is in decline as far as seats are concerned. Except in Bihar ? where it fought as a junior partner, Punjab ? where it formed the government and Manipur and Goa where it emerged as the single largest party, it has seen mighty falls in the number of seats. It was toppled from second place in local polls held in Gujarat and Kerala too. However, does this mean that support for the Congress is reducing throughout?
The answer is no. The flaw remains in the first past the post system, where whoever gets the most votes wins. This means that a candidate winning an extremely small vote percentage wins the seat. It is naive to say that the none-too-high vote share of the BJP means lack of popular mandate, as that is how the system works, where seats matter and not the votes. However, vote shares need to be considered to understand another matter ? whether or not the losing parties got any support. In this light, it is clear that the Congress still has a significant support base in the states. It might not win seats because of multiple factors, but it still enjoys popular support, thus putting to rest claims that the party is ?dead?.
This clearly means that there is yet no alternative, pan-Indian party that stands as a viable opposition to the Congress. It still has deep roots in many states and the vote share numbers show that things are not yet bleak.
Organizational failures
However, there are other factors which are contributing to its decline. After the bone crushing defeat in LS polls, the Congress lost direction. Instead of strengthening its base, mobilising party cadres and nurturing new leaders, the party spent more time disrupting policy in Parliament. While it enjoyed a few minor victories in the Rajya Sabha, it could not stop the rampaging BJP from implementing many of its own pet schemes. It also could not channelize public anger against issues effectively, be it the One Rank One Pension scheme, demonetization, or the Aadhaar Bill. This has helped the BJP continue its rampage unchecked, and create an image of the Congress as anti people and anti-?development?.
Further, the central leadership has lost contact with the local cadres and this has been capitalised?heavily by the BJP. A case in point is Himanta Biswa Sarma, who was a long-time Congress veteran in Assam and jumped ship to the BJP purely because of indifference on the part of the central leadership. He was crucial in ensuring that the BJP won Assam. Similarly, veteran Congressman SM Krishna has joined the BJP in Karnataka. These losses dampen cadre morale and generate anger against the leadership.
The party has also been unable to offer an alternative discourse to the people. Having pursued mostly neo-liberal policies that are now being continued by the BJP for most of its last term, it has forgotten that what got it votes during its glory days in the 1970s and even the early 2000s was its unabashed commitment to welfare. This alternate discourse can be used effectively to counter the BJP?s idea of ?development” but the Congress, however, has shied away from doing it.?
All these factors have resulted in the Congress’ inability to turn potential vote share captures into victories and the reasons for this include carelessness and the lack of a clear strategy.
The road to resurgence
It is impossible to wipe out the Congress from India since there is no pan-Indian alternative to the party. No other party is, even now, as accommodative and flexible, in terms of ideology and policy. However, the Congress definitely needs some decisive revamping in order to make up for its recent setbacks.?
Firstly, it needs to define Rahul Gandhi?s role. Sonia Gandhi has hinted several times that she might retire in the next year or two and Rahul Gandhi seems to be in no mood to take up the mantle of leadership. He either needs to assert himself and revive the party organizationally or indicate clearly that he is incapable of leadership.
It needs to nurture new leaders. Young leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot have proven their capability already. Shashi Tharoor can bear the mantle for media management and public relations. It needs to turn a new leaf and look for young blood in its vast cadre across states for future Assembly elections, only then can it produce winnable candidates.
Finally, it needs to assert its dominance and dictate terms. It needs to stop entering constraining alliances that undermine its pan-Indian appeal. It needs to spend extensive time carving election strategies based on its old discourses of welfare and socialism.
Thus, it is clear that the Congress needs a massive revamp. If the party takes quick and decisive steps, its resurgence to the political centre is certainly not an impossibility in the near future.
